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Doomsday argument: Quiz


Question 1: Nick Bostrom has argued that ________ is (part of) the discriminator between what is in and what is out of the reference class, and that extraterrestrial intelligences might affect the calculation dramatically.
IdeaHenri BergsonConsciousnessGottfried Leibniz

Question 2: Pr(n|N) - the chance of being born in any position based on a total population N - all DA forms assume the ________, making Pr(n|N) = 1/N
Dark energyUniverseCopernican principleBig Bang

Question 3: Another objection to the Doomsday Argument is that the expected total human population is actually ________.
Transfinite numberNumberInfinityLarge numbers

Question 4: The 'standard' Doomsday Argument ________ doesn't spend very much time on this point, and simply says that the reference class is the number of 'humans'.
EmpiricismHypothesisPlatoScientific method

Question 5: Assuming that the world population stabilizes at 10 billion and a ________ of 80 years, it can be estimated that the remaining 1140 billion humans will be born in 9120 years.
Life extensionAIDSLife expectancyMaximum life span

Question 6: The easiest way to produce the doomsday estimate with a given confidence (say 95%) is to pretend that N is a continuous variable (since it is very large) and ________ over the probability density from N = n to N = Z.
CalculusContinuous functionIntegralDerivative

Question 7:
  • The ________, so that it is as likely for any other randomly selected person to be born after you as before you.
    Principle of indifferencePrinciple of maximum entropyEquiprobableBayesian probability

Question 8: A random in-progress cricket test match is sampled for a single piece of information: the current ________'s run tally so far.
Ricky PontingBatting (cricket)Donald BradmanKevin Pietersen

Question 9: If ________ becomes common, and the birth rate drops to zero, N will never be reached.

Question 10: The Doomsday argument (DA) is that even if we were completely ignorant of the game we could make the same prediction, or profit by offering a bet paying ________ of 2-to-3 on the batsmen doubling his current score.
Odds ratioBookmakerOddsProbability


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